9 October, 2025

Stefan Lauber

4 minute read

When South Africans hear about the National Dialogue now underway, the most common reactions are skepticism and cynicism. For many, it looks like another electioneering project, a way for the government to appear consultative while little changes on the ground. After years of promises without delivery, this mistrust is understandable.

But dismissing the dialogue outright would be a mistake. If handled seriously, it represents an enormous opportunity. With technological disruption accelerating, unemployment among the highest in the world, and inequality widening, South Africa cannot afford to let this moment slip. We need to shift from a state of resignation to one of progressive action. The risks of failure are significant, but the risks of inaction are greater.

This isn’t the first time dialogue has been dismissed as unrealistic. In the early 1990s, South Africa faced political violence, economic isolation, and deep social division. Yet it was through dialogue that the country transitioned peacefully to democracy, an achievement still admired around the world. If dialogue could birth the first New South Africa, why shouldn’t it lay the foundations for a New South Africa 2.0?

Watering the Leaves vs. Watering the Roots

The heart of the debate is about how we grow the economy. For decades, South Africa, like much of the world, has flirted with “trickle-down economics,” the idea that if corporations thrive and the wealthy prosper, benefits will eventually filter down to everyone else. Think of it like watering a plant from the top: some water may reach the roots, but much of it evaporates before doing any good.

The evidence is damning. The World Bank calls South Africa the most unequal country in the world, with a Gini coefficient that has barely budged in decades. Corporate profits have risen, but unemployment remains stubbornly high. Growth has often been “jobless growth,” where GDP numbers improve but ordinary people see no change in their daily lives.

The alternative is to water the roots, to nourish the base of society by investing in people. This “trickle-up” approach, sometimes called demand-side economics, argues that when ordinary citizens have money in their pockets and the skills to participate in the economy, businesses flourish. A strong middle class creates demand, and demand fuels growth.

Beyond Corruption and Governance

It is impossible to talk about South Africa’s economy without acknowledging the role of corruption and poor governance. The Zondo Commission laid out in excruciating detail how state capture hollowed out institutions and destroyed trust. This has eroded investor confidence and stalled reform.

But here’s the uncomfortable truth: even if we ended corruption tomorrow, the economy would still be in crisis. The deeper issue is that South Africa has not prepared its people or its businesses for the future. COVID-19 normalised mass retrenchments whenever business conditions worsened. The Fourth Industrial Revolution and artificial intelligence threaten to accelerate this trend, eliminating jobs faster than new ones are created. The real challenge is not only how to create jobs, but how to protect jobs and reposition workers so they remain employable in a changing economy.

Lessons from Elsewhere

International comparisons help sharpen the point.

• Scandinavia is often portrayed as a wealthy region that can “afford” generous welfare states. But the reality is the opposite. They are wealthy because they chose early on to reduce inequality. Higher taxes on the wealthy, universal education, and strong social safety nets created a broad middle class that powers economic growth. As the OECD noted in 2021, inequality is not just socially corrosive; it actively drags down long-term growth.
• Germany provides another lesson. Its strength in manufacturing and engineering rests not on luck but on deliberate investment in vocational training. Through the dual-education system, workers are continuously upskilled, ensuring that industry has the talent it needs (World Economic Forum, 2020).

The key insight is this: equity is not the result of prosperity, it is a cause of it. When societies water the roots, they create a virtuous cycle of growth, resilience, and inclusion.

The Way Forward for South Africa

South Africa is not starting from scratch. Although much maligned, we already have many of the institutional pieces of the puzzle:

• The National Skills Authority and Fund is well-funded and has representation of all the stakeholders. It could be a powerful engine for future-ready training if directed with foresight and vigour.
• The SETAs (Sector Education and Training Authorities) create Sector Skills Plans by aggregating the Workplace Skills Plans (WSP) of the employers, who, unfortunately, treat them as compliance exercises rather than strategic development plans. With the right intention, the SETAs could easily fast-forward the creation of a future-ready workforce.
• The QCTO (Quality Council for Trades and Occupations) has developed, in conjunction with business, up-to-date curricula that provide graduates with the skills required by industry and certification. Unfortunately, the institution has struggled with limited capacity.

The problem is not the absence of structures. The problem is that we have lost the drive, initiative, speed, and spirit of cooperation. Too many stakeholders,  government, business, labour, have come to accept dysfunction as normal.

What we need is leadership that can reset the vision, restore urgency, and demand accountability. A new social compact must not just tick compliance boxes but actively prepare workers, industries, and communities for the age of AI and automation. South Africa did the impossible once; perhaps it is time for New South Africa 2.0.

The National Dialogue Reconsidered

Which brings us back to the National Dialogue. Critics are right to question its motives. But they are wrong if they dismiss its potential. This moment could be wasted in political theatre or it could spark the renewal South Africa so desperately needs.

Dialogue is only the first step. What matters is whether it leads to progressive action, shared responsibility, and real outcomes. South Africans must engage, demand follow-through, and insist that leaders move from promises to implementation.

The stakes are high. If inequality continues to rise, if unemployment deepens, if technological change outpaces our ability to adapt, the country risks sinking into further crisis. But if we seize this opportunity, South Africa can move from negativity to renewal, watering the roots, not just the leaves.

Closing Reflection

Inequality is not an abstract number; it is lived every day, in crowded classrooms, empty dinner tables, and young people shut out of the future. Trickle-down economics has promised that prosperity will eventually reach them, but too often, it never does.

South Africa’s future depends on a different path. A path that starts at the roots, equipping people with skills, building competitive businesses, and forging a new compact that makes growth inclusive.

After all, no plant has ever thrived because someone only watered its leaves.