Professor Sohail Inayatullah

Specialist Contributor

We think about futures in many contexts, and the future of cities is often on our minds these days. Figure 1, for example, shows an image of a futuristic city, It is a prediction. We can interpret it differently – is this a wonderful, clean future with very little traffic? We can also question it, asking where are the humans? Where is nature? We can also take a different view of the future of the same city. Figure 2 is drawn by an 11 year old. In her future, the city is more pedestrian focused. There are even skywalks. But most significantly, she is in that future. The future is about future generations – tomorrow’s children. But when we explore different perspectives, the future is opened up, and we can ask: what type of city do we wish to live in?

Figure 1

There is certainly a fun aspect of Futures Thinking. Science fiction, imagining the unthinkable and dreaming the impossible. Linking the impossible with reality are the words of Nelson Mandela, who said, “It always seems impossible until it’s done.”

But there is also a rigorous aspect of Futures Thinking. This is important as it disciplines the field, structuring how we think. In Futures Studies, there are four important approaches. The first is predictive. In this, we seek to make precise, and we hope accurate predictions of what will come. How many computers will there be in 2030? What percent of cars on the road will be driverless? Will humans reach Mars by 2050? Governments, corporations, non-governmental organizations, social movements, and individuals all seek to predict. They want to know what will happen. This is partly so they can make better decisions, but often it is to reduce anxiety and to make the world a better place.

Figure 2

A second aspect of Futures Thinking is interpretive. We are less concerned here about predicting and more focused on meaning, on gaining insight from predictions of the future. We understand that people understand the future differently. Some see the future as more of the same, business-as-usual. Others see the future as full of difficulty, as a world of danger and pain. Still others see the future as transformative, where everything can and will change. The impossible will become possible. And finally, others wish for the future to be past, when times were simpler, and when the world was easier to understand. Interpretations also differ by cultures and nations, believing them to be either linear or cyclical.

A third approach is critical. In this perspective, it is not prediction or individual or social interpretation that is important, but what is not being said – the hidden assumptions behind what we research, what we focus on. For example, one may imagine the future as business-as-usual because one is in a position of economic privilege. Another person or organization may be in difficulty and thus see the future as dystopian. Where one stands can determine what one sees. In this approach, the role of the futurist is to question all assumptions as to energy use (coal or solar), or the type of marriages (human-robot?) that we will have in the future. The questioning challenges what we consider normal. The final approach to the future is action learning. In this approach, we move from vision and ideas to strategies.

A third-level critical analysis would be focused on asking challenging questions. Well, besides robots, how else can we spend more time with our parents? At this stage, scenarios can be developed. (1) Well, if we all chipped in, then the dishes would be done sooner, and then we could all have family time. (2) Well, let’s pay one of the kids to do the dishes. They get an allowance, and parents are less tired. (3) Well, we could take turns cleaning the kitchen. (4) Ok, let’s just buy a robot. Finally, we decide what needs to be done. What is the best plan of action forward?

Futures Thinking, thus, is about going deeper, asking questions, finding solutions to today’s problems, and creating opportunities to create different tomorrows.